There is a guy that thought some of the Climate Science big wigs were blowing smoke up his ass. Actually, there are quite a few but one, Jeff Id, helped author a paper showing who was blowing the smoke. Jeff is a little bummed out now at Business as Usual.
The Steig of Steig et. al. 2009, is Eric Steig of the University of Washington and one of the al.s is Micheal Mann of the Penn State University. You may have heard of Mann and his hockey stick, law suits and all around entertaining scientific presence. Steig and Mann are contributors to the world famous Climate Blog, RealClimate.org. The place where you go to get the finest in current climate science information from the real experts.
The latest climate pooh like,
Why Does the Stratosphere Cool While the Troposphere Warms
Opps, Sorry that post is obsolete, evidently they didn't understand things when they wrote the post. Shit happens.
What Does the Lag of CO2 Behind Temperature in Ice Cores Tell Us About Global Warming? Hmmm? "In other words, CO2 does not initiate the warming, but acts as an amplifier once they are underway. From model estimates, CO2 (along with other greenhouse gases CH4 and N2O) causes about half of the full glacial-to-interglacial warming." Okay, something unknown starts the warming from a glacial period. CO2 and all the other gases may cause half of the warming from the Last Glacial Maximum based on the models.
Antarctic Cooling, Global Warming
Okay, CO2 causes about half of the not warming? Oh, wait!
Significant Warming in the Antarctic Troposphere
Whew! There may be some warming after all.
State of the Antarctic Red or Blue?
Eric and Mike did a fine job of finding some statistically significant warming. Opps! Dr. Hu McCulloch seems a bit ticked off. Seems that Eric and Mike made a mistake, then didn't mention who found their mistake. What is that called? Nature is a pretty big scientific journal. It must be embarrassing to screw up in a prestigious scientific journal.
Oh nooooo! They did it themselves!
And now ladies and gentlemen, just it time to influence the leaders of the free world with the Fifth IPCC report,
"Box 5.1: Polar Amplification
Instrumental temperature records show that the Arctic (Bekryaev et al., 2010) and the Antarctic Peninsula [(Turner et al., 2005; Turner et al., 2009)] are experiencing the strongest warming trends (0.5°C per decade over the past 50 years), almost twice larger than for the hemispheric or global mean temperature [(IPCC, 2007)]. West Antarctic temperature also displays a warming trend of about 0.1°C per decade over the same time period (Steig et al., 2009; [Reference needed: O'Donnell et al., ?])." Ya think that they might mention that the Steig paper is flawed?
I encourage everyone to review the archives of realclimate. It is an online testimony to the hilarious world of climate science. Who knows, the Antarctic may be warming this week. At least the fate of the world is in good hands.
Cap'n
ReplyDeleteFWIT, it's getting harder and harder to accept your disavowal of political interests - and one of the reasons is that apparently you assign political motivations to only one side of the debate. Look a little into Jeff's politics.
And do you actually think that the RC explanation for the lag between warming and CO2 increase is not a viable explanation?
Joshua, I hate liars. So I hate politicians. I don't care much about anyone's politics or religion, just whether they are honest enough to believe, within reason.
ReplyDeleteThe RC explanation is for about half the warming. Which is about right. Only, half that warming has already come to pass. If you follow all the links, it should be obvious they have some serious uncertainty. They are not communicating that uncertainty very well. They appear to be avoiding papers that show that uncertainty. That is not what I expect from science. That is what I expect from politicians.
So right now I am much more conservative than liberal, because I am catching more liberals lying.
If I caught Jeff lying about anything that meant something, I would note that too.