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Saturday, May 12, 2012

Changes in Tropospheric Heat Flow

I have done this a couple of times but misplaced the work. Since there is more data, it is probably a good idea to update the charts anyway. Above is the UAH atmospheric layer differentials for the lower US 48. I used that because I live in the lower 48 and have a more complete data set for UAH. RSS data should be pretty close. Around 1994 to 95 there appears to me to be a climate shift. Since the lower stratosphere has much less thermal mass than the troposphere, changes would be amplified in the lower stratosphere. By using the differentials, lower troposphere (TLT) minus mid troposphere (TMT) and the TMT minus the lower Stratosphere (TLS) the charts focus on the change in the energy flow relationship between layers. The linear regression equations show the value of the slope for the period up to 1995 and after 1995, where I believe the shift occurred.
This plot is for the global land area with the same plot set up and data set.
This is for the global ocean area using the same stuff. There appears to be a change around 1995.
Northern Extent land, same change.
Tropics land, not as huge a change, but a change.
Southern extent land, more change than the tropics less than the northern extent. Since Blogger is having issues with tables and paragraphs again,
Here is a screen capture table of the regressions for each and the changes for each. Pinatubo erupted around 1991, so some think that the change may be related to volcanic activity. I don't think so. I am inclined to believe the oceans have reached or are reaching, a point of pseudo equilibrium. That would change the relationship between the lower troposphere and the stratosphere. When the oceans are warming from a long cooling period, the atmospheric or greenhouse effect would be stronger, holding more heat energy. As the oceans heat uptake decreases, they would release more heat resulting in reduced atmospheric effect and a reduction in the rate of cooling of the stratosphere. Enough heat loss would result in a warming of the stratosphere. The atmosphere appears to be reaching a control point, so only now can the impact of CO2 be reasonable estimated.

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