Monday, May 7, 2012
The University of Alabama, Huntsville Microwave Sounding Unit (UAH MSU) atmospheric temperature data is supposedly the gold standard for global mean temperature. Since I am playing with Open Office trying to get it to do some time series stuff, I detrended the Northern Extent, Tropics and Southern Extent data sets. "Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth" results published in 2009 with the addition of a little hint of solar impact. Note: I am sure this method has probably been used before, but I just developed what I am doing here on my own. If anyone has a link to the original development, if it is indeed a valid method, let me know. UPDATE: http://phys.org/news/2012-05-satellite-global-climate-closer.html There will be some adjustments to UAH which will be interesting since while it should increase the overall slope is should also increase the lower slope from 2000. I will revise this when the new data is available. UPDATE 5/9: Since the death of UAH MSU seems to have been announced in the climate world, I thought I would check if the reports are accurate.
Notice that the RSS detrended has very pronounced change in the orange, tropics plot. The blue, northern extent plot is subdued. Since these are plotted with the average of the three detrended, the most subdued produced the strongest common signal. So the Northern extent would be driving climate according to the RSS data. While that may sound nifty, the ocean heat content is no piker in the climate game. The tropics trend is negative for the RSS with detrended variation removed, which goes counter to what I would expect. So I may have screwed up or there may be some unintentional bias in the RSS data. So I will go back to check to see how bad I screwed up, but I really suspect the RSS calibration is not consistent with the satellite changes. UAH is also likely to have issues, but it looks like any errors they may have made were consistent, which would mean the data is still useful. Found a issue in the spread sheet so the chart above is updated. Since the Tropics are mainly the issue.