New Computer Fund

Friday, June 29, 2012

Dragon Kings and Swans of Another Color

That chart is of the Hadley Climate Research Unit (HADCRU) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) version 2, HADSST2 which just for grins I converted into energy, Watts per meter squared Wm-2 because I am working on a model for the climate.  Not a particularly fancy model, just a simple energy balance model.  I included the curved lines to illustrate the approach to an equilibrium energy level.  The spike at the start of the orange portion of the plot is the 1998 Super El Nino.  The orange decay curve that I included is a little exaggerated, but it was not intended to be an attempt to determine a rate of decay, just illustrate that it should be decaying to the common energy of approximately 425.7 Wm-2 or so.

This is the same chart with the RSS global stratosphere temperature in red.  The scales are different, I just added the stratosphere data to show the shift around 1995 to 1996 that tends to agree with the flattening of the HADSST2 prior to the 1998 El Nino.

This flattening is generally believed to be the result of the Pinatubo volcanic eruption.  That is possible, I am more inclined to believe it is due to the upper layer of the oceans reaching what would be their normal energy content.  The 20th century started under somewhat cooler than normal circumstances, rose to near normal in 1945, then there was an unusual drop in SST that is largely unexplained.  Typically, I could give a rat's butt what climate science is doing, but since there are unexplained things and overly confident scientists saying that we all need to give until it hurts because of Global Warming, I have done a little looking and this is not something that any of the best and brightest of climate science has taken note of recently.  If fact, many seem to avoid this like the plague.  It does not fit climate theory.

Since I am not a conspiracy theorist, I will give climate scientists the benefit of the doubt and just assume they are idiots.  Since the idiots, er climate scientists, are predicting doom in the next 100 years or so, including a "black swan" event in the next decade, I thought I would get my prediction in as well.

A "dragon king" is a completely unpredictable event and a black swan is an unexpected, but should have been predictable event.  I am saying that the 1995 shift to neutral warming of the oceans was a dragon king that sets the stage for a major series of black swans that the climate scientists will call a dragon king because they never realized that the dragon king had already happened, it was just waiting for the right push.  So this "Dragon King" which will make the headlines in the next few years to a decade, should have been just a black swan if the climate scientists had any real clue what they were doing.

So I am predicting two Dragon King events, the first a major cooling period during the next solar minimum and the second the complete loss of faith in climate science because they should have known but didn't.  A teens twofer.  Later this year, the fifth IPCC report will be produced.  There will be plenty of fresh climate predictions just in time for climate reality to set in.

So this is just to make my prediction public.  Enjoy the laughs at how foolish it is.  We'll check back in a decade to see how poorly someone did.

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