Wednesday, August 29, 2012
There is obviously a larger oscillation in the northern extra-tropics with a physical explanation, the Northern extra-tropics have more land and less ocean than the rest of the world, so they have lower heat capacity or thermal mass. The northern extra-tropics would be more sensitive to change than the rest of the world.
So will the region of the Earth with the least thermal mass drive the rest of the world to a much warmer temperature or will the more stable southern extra-tropics dampen the impact of the larger swings in temperature in the Northern extra-tropics? Which choice of baseline would be a better indication of the expected change?