I have a reputation in blog land of being tepid. That is a little lower than the typical lukewarmer. Captain 0.8 +/- 0.2 which is about half of the average lukewarmer position. I have seen absolutely no evidence that I should change my estimate of "Sensitivity". In fact I am just waiting on the world to catch up. Andy Revkin with the New York Times blog DotEarth has been posting lately on the world catching up.
A Closer Look at Moderating Views of Climate Sensitivity, is his latest post on the subject.
Andy, of course, has to include his greenie weenie caveat, "There’s still plenty of global warming and centuries of coastal retreats in the pipeline, so this is hardly a “benign” situation, as some have cast it." My estimate is base on the oceans which cover 70 percent of the surface of the Earth and provide nearly all of the estimated 333 to 345 Wm-2 of "Down Welling Longwave Radiation" (DWLR) which is basically the temperature of the atmosphere just before dawn. Most folks that deal with energy don't carry around a lot of gross values, they simplify to net energy. If the average temperature of the atmosphere before dawn is 4 C degrees (334.5 Wm-2) and the average temperature of the oceans is 4 C degrees (334.5Wm-2) there is likely a connection.
Also because of my engineering background, I know that the "surface" of the Earth is complex and since water vapor holds and distributes most of the surface energy, that would be a logical place to start. It is not rocket science, it is refrigeration on steroids and water is the refrigerant.
Being a progressive greenie weenie, Andy has the typical paranoid that all non-greenies are out to get him. He can only sneak up on reality if he is to avoid incurring the wrath of his greenie weenie buddies. The fact is the "pipeline" has run dry. The gig is up. They screwed the pooch. Time for a do over.
Climate is a ridiculously complex problem. Sensitivity is non-linear and as it reaches certain thresholds, other influences grow in importance. Greenie weenies, being the linear no threshold weenies they are, fail to recognize that they are no where near as intelligent as they suppose. The correct answer is often, "I don't know." But Andrew has to toss in his caveat like he actually is sure that it exists.
Andy, grow a pair.