Thursday, February 9, 2012
Models versus Observations
The latitudinal temperature change based of GISS data for 2011 using 1896 to 1906 baseline above is not perfect, but should give a reasonable idea of the climate change since 1900.
The above is the temperature change simulated by GISS based on constant sea surface temperature. As you can see it differs considerable in the tropics.
The chart for the RSS tropical data from 1979 indicates a warming of approximately 0.1 degrees per decade. The data from 1994 appears to indicate a shift to 0.04 degrees per decade. Both are considerably less than the simulated 0.26 degrees per decade.
With the apparent narrowing of the tropical belt associated with the PDO change to negative and the implied relationship of the tropical belt varying with longer term solar TSI changes, there is a likely possibility that the 1994 trend will remain the same or decrease over the next solar cycle.
Update: fixed some of the typos