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Friday, July 27, 2012

Changing Climate - Land Versus Oceans

If you look at GISS LOTI, land and ocean temperature index versus HADSST2, the Hadley Center version 2 sea surface temperature record, the global average minus the sea surface temperature remains positive most of the time.  I did not change the baseline for either, all I want is to look at possible changes in the trend.

Since both have some possible issues early in the records, this plot from 1970 should be the more accurate portion of the record.  There is a trend where the land portion is warming greater than the oceans.  That is ancient history, no news there.

Moving into the satellite era, this chart compares the Northern extent, Southern extent and Tropical regions of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, MSU lower troposphere data.  This is a bit messy, but the southern extent has a negative trend while both the Northern extent and to a greater degree the Tropics have positive trends.

Looking at every 130 month linest trend for the land minus oceans there is nothing the really jumps out.  The Southern extent is mainly out of phase with the Northern extent, the tropics are generally in phase with the Northern extent.  Starting around 1998, the tropics and Northern extent ramp up to the Northern extent peak for the series.  The generally trend of the Southern extent is upward with more volatility.  Somewhat surprising, the tropics and Northern extent are fairly flat and less volatile.

This is the GISS minus SST2 with the 130 month linest.  Which of the UAH trends does this most resemble?  Yes, it looks like the southern extent where the majority of the energy is stored.  In case, you can't seen the correlation,
There is not a perfect correlation, but the GISS-SST2 tends to more closely match the SoExt.

What about variance?

While the HADSST2 accuracy is suspect going back in time, it is a portion of the data available.  The SST2 orange plot here is just the difference between one month and the next.  Not conclusive, but the monthly variance decreases as the SST warms at the end of the record, that could be indicating the approach to or arrival at, a heat capacity limit.

The 130 month LINEST plot in green is for the GISS minus SST.  That indicates they are becoming less disorganized, which may be real or a product of inaccuracies in either record.  Any either case, something worth looking into further.

Oop!  Missed the reason for all this,

Those two charts don't jive with GHE expectations.

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