Sunday, December 16, 2012
What the Flux? What Anomaly?
The chart above is the new Hadley Climate Research Unit version 4 with the C average being the simple average of the NH and SH anomaly scaled to 14 C, the rough "average" surface temperature. The Wm-2 average goes like this. The NH and SH time series are converted to Wm-2 with 10 K difference between the two. The NH scaled to an average of 19C and the SH scaled to an average of 9C, then convert both to Wm-2, average the Wm-2 and convert back to C degrees. The ten degrees difference produces the 0.14 mean error in this quick example. The use of anomalies is very useful but there is some error that can be produced if the differences are large. Nothing new, not shown is a 2 degree difference that produced an average error of ~0.01 C error.
TheAirVent with Jeff Id, along with some other blog "skeptic" publish a paper, O'Donnell et.al 2010, that noted that improper averaging or interpolation methods produce a large amount of potential error. Since the Antarctic has the fewest surface stations per area and the greatest temperature change per degree of latitude, the range of uncertainty is extremely large when compared to the rest of the globe.
The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project has re-estimated the Antarctic region using a Kriging method of interpolation which has many advantages over other methods attempted in the past, but it would still have the latitudinal variation issue which, with limited data, is unavoidable. Even with plenty of data, averaging or Kriging across latitudes will produce smearing of temperatures.
Since all the data is in temperature and the response to energy change is the large portion of the problem, there is unavoidable uncertainty.
This is the main reason that I focus on simple static models, and the moist air portion of the globe. With higher average energy/temperature they would produce lower average error. There is still too much uncertainty to have a eureka moment, but the simpler model does produce interesting results.
For example: Using the simple model, an increase in atmospheric forcing would produce a decrease in Antarctic average temperature. Some climate scientist are hell bent on "proving" warming using the Antarctic when cooling is actually a "proof" of increased GHG forcing according to my simple model.
Who is right will be pretty obvious in a few years.