Sunday, February 8, 2015
Why does actual temperature matter?
If any of the grand poohbahs of climate science have something better, break it out bubba.
This is the CMIP model runs for global Ts, the orange is all of the means of the 107 climate models available at Climate Explorer and the blue is the model mean with seasonal cycle intact.
% Estimated Jan 1951-Dec 1980 absolute temperature (C): 8.70 +/- 0.06
% Estimated Jan 1951-Dec 1980 monthly absolute temperature (C):
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% 2.68 3.28 5.36 8.38 11.41 13.58 14.46 13.96 12.14 9.29 6.15 3.72
% +/- 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
+/- 0.06C degrees appears to be "small".
If I take the anomaly of the three and center on a common baseline period, the move will not be "small". If you are off by 1 C degree ( 1.8 F degrees) in an energy calculation involving latent heat, you error is substantial greater than if there is no latent heat involved. Latent heat in many instances can be greater than half of the "heat" energy. This poses a major problem for climate models that have to estimate atmospheric humidity, cloud formation and convective heat transfer just to name a few. In order to correct, the model "parameters" have to be adjusted, "tuned", "calibrated" or some other euphemism for fudged.
Update: I use some non standard methods at times for "cheats" since I have a pretty basic Open-office spread sheet on a pretty limited laptop. One of my cheats is sequential correlations. The CORREL() function is easy and if I need to I can compare lagged correlation in a cludgy way, but just a sequential comparison is pretty informative.