Sunday, June 9, 2013
Entropy Budget for Earth - Discussion of Nick Stokes Stab at it.
The red 40 in Nick's drawing is the problem. I first started this blog because I discovered an 18 to 20 Wm-2 error in the K&T Earth Energy Budgets that produced the nearly double estimate of that "window" relative to that "Ground" surface. If you are off by 18 to 20 Wm-2 because of poor choices of frames of reference, things will not get any better anytime soon. When some of the top minds in the climate science game make such a mistake, getting them to admit it is rather difficult.
To show the problem instead of "Ground" I use the Black Body Cavity i.e. the global oceans which have a much more stable temperature. The only problem with that frame of reference is that the oceans only cover ~70% of the "surface". The big benefit though is that the reference has stayed within a degree or so for a very long time.
Since the "shell" is simply a frame of reference, using the ocean 334.5 Energy and 70%, 234 Wm-2 could also be used producing the apparent ~236 Wm-2 average OLR value. This simple approach does not include atmosphere SW absorption, but since the source 334.5 Wm-2 is a product of all radiant forcing over a large time scale, it is fairly easy to include a "surface" and atmospheric boundary layer to extend the budget.
You can visit Nick's blog post here but I need to look at what impact the revision of the "window" his estimates, but this 288K "Ground" legacy error appears to be gumming up the works. Until the impact of that 20Wm-2 error is recognized with something more than a note saying that a "minor adjustment" was made to the budget, not much is going to happen.