New Computer Fund

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Climate versus Weather Correlations

S. India S. Atl S. Pac N. Indian N. Atl N. Pac
1951-2012 Giss dTs 0.80 0.60 0.63 0.80 0.66 0.38
1880-2012 Giss dTs 0.81 0.74 0.70 0.79 0.67 0.55
1951-2012 GISS Gbl 0.79 0.60 0.68 0.80 0.66 0.45
1880-2012 GISS Gbl 0.86 0.79 0.76 0.83 0.73 0.65

This is a correlation table I put together as part of the on going "setting up the problem".  Finding correlations and recurrent patterns is a piece of cake.  Convincing others that they are relevant, not so much.  In order to get the data for the table I had to used the KMNI Climate Explorer site and I masked the ocean regions listed above.  I used 60 to equator for the latitude range and for the ocean breaks 70W, 147E and 20E which is not perfect but seems to be close enough.  The GISS global land and oceans and land only (dTs) are downloaded from the GISTEMP site.   The table is the results of correlation tests for the two time periods for both GISS data sets to the masked HadISST 1 SST regions bounded by my selected latitude and longitudes.

The reason for the table is making a stronger case for the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool as being a strong global climate teleconnection location.  The South and North Indian Oceans have the highest "raw" correlation to the GISS data sets.  I will leave it to others pick apart the relevance of the correlation values, but all the data sets where monthly so there is close to 1600 points for the 1880 to 2012 longest correlation.  This is the first time I have done this by ocean basins so I was a little surprised that the North Atlantic didn't do a bit better.  Remember though that the mask area only extends to 60N which likely has some impact.  Trying to splice to paleo, the higher latitudes just produce more Weather noise and I am really looking for 60 plus year Climate correlation to splice with the often 50 year and longer naturally smoothed ocean cores

With paleo splicing my intent is to use these regions smoothed to whatever paleo sample time frame to make more use of the lower frequency paleo which appears to have more reliable information than many of the attempts at high frequency resolution. 

I just posted this for guys that have been picking up on the Oppo et al. 2009 Indo-Pacific Warm Pool reconstruction which is nicely interpolated into 10 year bins just for paleo to instrumental spicing. 

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