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Saturday, October 26, 2013

Sol y Vol Planetary Scale Smoothing

 This chart uses all of the Steinhilber dTSI and Crowley & Unterman "Global" volcanic sulphates reconstructions with the full Oppo 2009 Indo-Pacific Warm Pool.  In this case the 252 year trailing average of dTSI seems to replicate a reasonable smoothing that a planet with vast oceans might produce.  A combined solar and volcanic forcing change lasting centuries likely takes centuries to work its way through such a massive system.

So using just a reconstruction of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Sea Surface Temperatures which has a remarkable fit to the instrumental temperature records back to 1750 AD once you deal with the Northern Hemisphere amplification of temperatures seems to indicate that there was a strong solar and volcanic impact starting throughout the past 2000 years with the coldest period being between 1250 ad and 1850 ad.  Not inconsistent with the MWP and LIA periods that once were a part of all the high school textbooks. 

On shorter time scales you have to consider the hemispheric interplay as each hemisphere has its own dampening constant creating obvious ~20 to 60 year pseudo-oscillations with 60 to 120 year pseudo-oscillations evident in most paleo data depending on the natural smoothing of the proxy used and location of collection.  With all they complex interactions, you can get just about any theory you like to fit for some time frame, but planetary smoothing tends to indicate that the Sun and Volcanoes "done most of it". 

Since there is a lot going on in  producing the Sol y Vol reconstruction I have the simplified chart above as an eye catcher.
This chart shows the different cumulative smoothing that were used to find a fit.  The Crowley and Unterman Volcanic data was just added to the better 252 yr trailing average.  You can browse the Sol y Vol series of post to see various data sets and smoothing choices that lead to this fit for the tropics.  

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