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Monday, October 21, 2013

Sol y Vol with the Extra Tropical Oceans

This is the current fit of the combined Crowley and Unterman 2013 volcanic sulphates with the ERSSTv3b extra-tropical zone oceans.  I have not included the sliver of ocean above latitude 60 mainly  because of uncertainty in ice edge.  The serious scaling involved factors of 0.1 for each volcanic data set with 27 month exponential decay to 50% then combining the volcanic data with the Kopp TSI reconstruction to which the SORCE composite TSI was spliced.  That produces the base ~ Wm-2 estimates.  In order to "fit" the 30N-60N SST data required a 0.5 scaling factor.  All told, the NH bottleneck amplifies solar and volcanic forcing by a factor of ~2 which tends to throw most of the "global" forcing estimates off since that 30N-60N SST also is amplified by the land surfaces.  In other words, approximately 25% of the global surface is causing issues with the "global" mean surface temperature metric.  The surface/atmospheric energy is real and the weather oscillations note worthy, but as far as the "Global" energy budget goes the 30N-60N region is a serious PITA compared to the quiet well mixed southern hemisphere. 

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