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Sunday, October 27, 2013

Teleconnections - The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

Teleconnections are defined by the American Meteorological Society as:
“1. A linkage between weather changes occurring in widely separated regions of the globe. 2. A significant positive or negative correlation in the fluctuations of a field at widely separated points. Most commonly applied to variability on monthly and longer timescales, the name refers to the fact that such correlations suggest that information is propagating between the distant points through the atmosphere.”

 That is borrowed from the Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr. blog with weather in my bold.  There is a difference between weather and climate which is time.  In climate science a lot of weather teleconnections or oscillations are used under the assumption they are climate indicators while climate isn't all that well defined.  A repetitive signal of an ~ 60 year period with about four confirmed cycles, that is about 240 years might qualify as a Climate Teleconnection.  The problem though is all those trick other things that impact climate.

If it were not for volcanic activity having an irregular impact on climate, the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool would be a solid candidate for Climate Teleconnection.  There was a major volcanic impact in 1816 which was in phase and another around 1915 that was out of phase.  But the Indo-Pacific is just one tiny spot on the huge planet right?

When I did the For All the BEST Fans post the intent was to show that Best land and the Global ocean SST have a strong correlation and that both have a strong correlation to the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool.  That is not news, though the scaled BEST correlation might have been interesting. 
The correlation with volcanic activity is a little more difficult to see and might be news to some.  Many assume that Solar variation due to records of Sun Spot Number (SSN) counts is THE driver of climate, but because not every point fits just perfectly, the Solar/Climate relationship has been relegated to pseudo-science by many of the die hard minions of the great and powerful CO2.  That doesn't stop the minions from creating their own pseudo-scientific explanations using "canned" weather oscillations to ignore the cause of the climate part of the system.  They assume that "their" oscillations are true climate teleconnections and conveniently ignore the fact they have no clue what causes their oscillations.  Someone else said it is a teleconnection and zeros out some they just take that as gospel and solve all the climate problems for centuries with maybe a 150 years of "proof".

What we may have with the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is a weakly damped recovery response from the western Pacific depths of the Little Ice Age.  But what drives it?

Because of the huge thermal mass of the oceans the solar and volcanic reconstructions don't "fit" perfectly.  The more energy that has to be transferred the worse the fit, but there is always enough to be interesting. 
When you add a planetary size lag to the impacts with a 252 year cumulative estimate (252 year trailing average), you begin to see a better "fit". 

Just for the current modeling crazy, here is my contribution.

This is simply the Stienhilber dTSI 10Be "TSI" reconstruction smoothed by 21 years with one century scale lag also with 21 year smoothing compared to GISS loti global and hemispheres with 11 year smoothing.  I just use "Anomaly" because the dTSI appears to represent more than just the dTSI in its name, like combined orbital forcing

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