New Computer Fund

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Solar and weakly Damped Interactions

In the Sun!  It's not the Sun!  Come on guys, think.

Solar energy is absorbed by the atmosphere, the surface sink layer, the upper mixing level and the lower mixing level.  I am not going to look it up by something like, 20%, 25%, 45% and 10% respectively.

The delays would be months, months to a year, a year to 5 years and a 5 years to 15 years, for the atmosphere, skin layer, upper mixing layer and lower mixing layer.  A surface cannot emit energy any faster than energy can be transferred to the radiant surface, so there are lags.  Since the solar cycle is roughly 11 years and the lower mixing layer can delay energy release longer than 11 years at times, you have the wonderful harmonic or decay curve to consider.

Here is the Leif Svalgaard Solar TSI reconstruction with 5 and 15 year smoothing with ocean again an incorrectly labeled 11-5 which should be 15 yma minus 5 yma.  Open office has a nasty habit of not updating the second label for some odd reason.  PITA it is.

The 11 or 15 minus 5 is just a method of isolating a delay peak.  It is not to scale and likely inverted, but since the timing is the thing, it is useful.  The 15 year moving average illustrates the general impact that could be expected, the 5 year and "raw" data the noise that may be expected and the 11-5 of course, an estimate of the more noticeable impact.

The lower mixing layer absorption would be the biggest PITA.  Since the delay is not close to being reliable and depending on the currents, the impact may or may not be amplified by land/ocean thermal capacity ratio,  you have to be lucky to attribute any effect to the lower mixing layer absorption cause.  That would involve intimate knowledge of the internal natural oscillation causes and decay curves.

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